Uncontrolled outbreaks of acute respiratory infections (ARI) during the winter period cause severe economic damage and require the emergency mobilization of health services supplies. The ability to foresee their development would optimize the work of medical institutions.

Davies G.R. and Finch R.G. (United Kingdom) suggested using data on sales of drugs to the public as a signaling system that predicts a new epidemic.

A retrospective study was carried out covering 9 consecutive winter periods from 1992/93 to 2000/2001.

ARI meant the following acute respiratory infections: influenza, bacterial and viral pneumonia, acute bronchitis, bronchiolitis, lower respiratory tract infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, complicated by secondary infection.

During the study, the frequency of prescription of drugs for the above nosological forms, data from national and local health services on outbreaks of acute respiratory infections and data on sales of drugs at local and national were compared. Pharmaceutical retailers were available for three consecutive winter periods 1998/99, 1999/2000 and 2000/01.

The results of the study showed that the highest number of physician prescriptions for drugs for acute respiratory infections, as a rule, was observed during the 10-day period from December 29 to January 9 (p = 0.0002); An increase in the number of appointments from year to year was also noted. Three winter periods from 1992/93 to 2000/2001 were studied in more detail. In none of these periods have there been any outbreaks of acute respiratory infections nationwide. Although there is no clear relationship between the frequency of prescribing drugs and the reported incidence of acute respiratory infections, it was noted that physicians generally preceded the increase in the frequency of prescribing drugs by increasing sales of nonprescription drugs to the public. The researchers note that this relationship is more pronounced when considering the data at the local level.

It is difficult to assess the relationship between data on drug sales, the incidence of acute respiratory infections and the frequency of prescription of drugs by physicians for various acute respiratory infections nationwide. The model used, as the researchers themselves note, is not flexible enough, however, if appropriate corrections are made, it can be useful in predicting outbreaks of acute respiratory infections, which will no doubt allow '' optimize the work of medical institutions in winter.